SAMPLE HOTEL VALUATION by Osman Cenk Demiroglu, 2001

Operational Analysis

Fiscal Years ended  Year 2005 Year 2006 Year 2007 Year 2008 Year 2009 Year 2010 Year 2011
at the last day of Decembers              
SALES              
Rooms Revenue             8.163.225 USD             9.312.975 USD           10.462.725 USD           10.462.725 USD           10.462.725 USD           10.462.725 USD           10.462.725 USD
     Number of Rooms 150 150 150 150 150 150 150
     ADR                      210 USD                      210 USD                      210 USD                      210 USD                      210 USD                      210 USD                      210 USD
     Occupancy Rate @ (%) 71 81 91 91 91 91 91
Food and Beverage             4.081.613 USD             4.656.488 USD             5.231.363 USD             5.231.363 USD             5.231.363 USD             5.231.363 USD             5.231.363 USD
Other (Parking, Car Rental etc...)             1.632.645 USD             1.862.595 USD             2.092.545 USD             2.092.545 USD             2.092.545 USD             2.092.545 USD             2.092.545 USD
Total Revenues           13.877.483 USD           15.832.058 USD           17.786.633 USD           17.786.633 USD           17.786.633 USD           17.786.633 USD           17.786.633 USD
               
DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES              
Rooms              1.959.174 USD             2.235.114 USD             2.511.054 USD             2.511.054 USD             2.511.054 USD             2.511.054 USD             2.511.054 USD
Food and Beverage              3.061.209 USD             3.492.366 USD             3.923.522 USD             3.923.522 USD             3.923.522 USD             3.923.522 USD             3.923.522 USD
Other               734.690 USD               838.168 USD               941.645 USD               941.645 USD               941.645 USD               941.645 USD               941.645 USD
Total Expenses             5.755.074 USD             6.565.647 USD             7.376.221 USD             7.376.221 USD             7.376.221 USD             7.376.221 USD             7.376.221 USD
               
DEPARTMENTAL INCOMES              
Rooms             6.204.051 USD             7.077.861 USD             7.951.671 USD             7.951.671 USD             7.951.671 USD             7.951.671 USD             7.951.671 USD
Food and Beverage             1.020.403 USD             1.164.122 USD             1.307.841 USD             1.307.841 USD             1.307.841 USD             1.307.841 USD             1.307.841 USD
Other               897.955 USD             1.024.427 USD             1.150.900 USD             1.150.900 USD             1.150.900 USD             1.150.900 USD             1.150.900 USD
Total Operating Dept. Income             8.122.409 USD             9.266.410 USD           10.410.411 USD           10.410.411 USD           10.410.411 USD           10.410.411 USD           10.410.411 USD
               
UNDISTRIBUTED OPERATING EXPENSES            
Operator Related Expenses               816.323 USD               931.298 USD             1.046.273 USD             1.046.273 USD             1.046.273 USD             1.046.273 USD             1.046.273 USD
Operator Related Expenses (%) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
General and Administrative               812.241 USD               926.641 USD             1.041.041 USD             1.041.041 USD             1.041.041 USD             1.041.041 USD             1.041.041 USD
General and Administrative (%) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Marketing               649.793 USD               741.313 USD               728.729 USD               728.729 USD               728.729 USD               728.729 USD               728.729 USD
Marketing (%) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7
POMEC               406.120 USD               463.321 USD               624.625 USD               624.625 USD               728.729 USD               728.729 USD               832.833 USD
POMEC (%) 5 5 6 6 7 7 8
Total             2.684.477 USD             3.062.572 USD             3.440.667 USD             3.440.667 USD             3.544.771 USD             3.544.771 USD             3.648.875 USD
               
INCOME BEFORE FIXED CHARGES             5.437.932 USD             6.203.838 USD             6.969.744 USD             6.969.744 USD             6.865.640 USD             6.865.640 USD             6.761.536 USD
               
FIXED CHARGES              
Depreciation (DDB Method)             4.000.000 USD             2.857.143 USD             2.040.816 USD             1.457.726 USD             1.041.233 USD               743.738 USD               531.241 USD
Insurance               200.000 USD               200.000 USD               200.000 USD               200.000 USD               200.000 USD               200.000 USD               200.000 USD
Total             4.200.000 USD             3.057.143 USD             2.240.816 USD             1.657.726 USD             1.241.233 USD               943.738 USD               731.241 USD
               
NET PROFIT             1.237.932 USD             3.146.695 USD             4.728.928 USD             5.312.018 USD             5.624.407 USD             5.921.902 USD             6.030.295 USD
               
CASH FLOWS              
Undiscounted              5.237.932 USD             6.003.838 USD             6.769.744 USD             6.769.744 USD             6.665.640 USD             6.665.640 USD             6.561.536 USD

Valuation Analysis

Fiscal Years ended  Year 2002 Year 2003 Year 2004 Year 2005 Year 2006 Year 2007 Year 2008 Year 2009 Year 2010 Year 2011  
at the last day of Decembers                      
INVESTMENT COSTS                      
Estimated Value of Land    2.000.000 USD                    
Unexpected Costs    1.000.000 USD       500.000 USD       500.000 USD                
Construction Costs    1.253.000 USD    1.897.000 USD    1.470.000 USD                
  Body Construction (120 $/m2)       336.000 USD       336.000 USD       168.000 USD                
  Fine Construction (220 $/m2)       308.000 USD       616.000 USD       616.000 USD                
  Mechanical Works (120 $/m2)          84.000 USD       420.000 USD       336.000 USD                
  Electrical Works (75 $/m2)         52.500 USD       262.500 USD       210.000 USD                
  Infrastructure (50 $/m2)       262.500 USD         52.500 USD         35.000 USD                
  Architectural-Engineering        210.000 USD       210.000 USD       105.000 USD                
   works & Project Control (10%)                      
Furnishing ($ 1100/m2)    1.155.000 USD    2.695.000 USD    3.850.000 USD                
TOTAL    5.408.000 USD    5.092.000 USD    5.820.000 USD                
CASH FLOWS GENERATED FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES                  
Courtyard by Marriott          5.237.932 USD    6.003.838 USD    6.769.744 USD    6.769.744 USD    6.665.640 USD    6.665.640 USD    6.561.536 USD  
                      Terminal Value
NET CASH FLOWS -  5.408.000 USD -  5.092.000 USD -  5.820.000 USD    5.237.932 USD    6.003.838 USD    6.769.744 USD    6.769.744 USD    6.665.640 USD    6.665.640 USD    6.561.536 USD   43.743.573 USD
CUMULATIVE CASH FLOWS -  5.408.000 USD - 10.500.000 USD - 16.320.000 USD - 11.082.068 USD -  5.078.230 USD    1.691.514 USD    8.461.258 USD   15.126.898 USD   21.792.538 USD   28.354.074 USD   65.536.111 USD
                       
discount rate 0,15 0,14 0,13 0,12 0,11 0,11 0,11 0,11 0,11 0,11 0,11
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOWS -  5.408.000 USD -  4.466.667 USD -  4.557.914 USD    3.728.257 USD    3.954.914 USD    4.017.514 USD    3.619.382 USD    3.210.562 USD    2.892.398 USD    2.565.067 USD   17.100.446 USD
CUM. DIS. CASH FLOWS -  5.408.000 USD -  9.874.667 USD - 14.432.580 USD - 10.704.324 USD -  6.749.410 USD -  2.731.896 USD       887.485 USD    4.098.047 USD    6.990.445 USD    9.555.512 USD   26.655.958 USD
                       
TOTAL INVESTMENT   14.432.580 USD                    
NPV   24.090.891 USD                    
IRR 0,28                    
ROI 1,67